The Laws of Probability

Way to not understand your own post. The way it is stated in the picture you provided, your understanding of the third axiom is wrong. This is specifically referring to the probability of disjunction, which talks about the probability of one of two events occurring. For example, if you roll a 6-sided die twice, what is the probability of at least one of them being a 6? Here, it says that the probability of either the first roll being a 6 or the second roll being a 6 is equal to the probability of the first one being a six plus the probability of the second one being a 6, minus the probability of them both being sixes. So, P(a(or)b) = P(a) + P(b) - P(a(and)b) The probability of the first roll being a 6 is 1/6. Same for the second. The probability of them both being sixes is (1/6)*(1/6)=1/36. So the probability of at least one of them being a 6 is: P(a(or)b) = 1/6 + 1/6 - 1/36 = .30556 Another way you can calculate this is by seeing the probability of neither of them being a six, and take 1 minus that probability. So the probability of the first one not being a six is 5/6. Same for the second roll. So the probability of neither of them being 6 is: (5/6)*(5/6)=25/36 Therefore the probability of at least one of them being 6 is 1-25/36 = 11/36 = .30556 Both methods reach the same probability. Although, the third axiom of probability is different from what I have seen. The way that I have learned it is the way that you are describing it, where it states that if event A and B are mutually exclusive then the probability of the union is the sum of the two probabilities. However, the picture that you have cited does not match the axiom that you have described. This all said, I dont see how understanding basic probability theory will help people form a logical conclusion on something. I really dont see how this has any relevance to anything that you have described.